March Madness is upon us once again, and as the 2025 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament kicks off, all eyes are on the 68 teams vying for college basketball glory. With Selection Sunday on March 16 revealing the bracket, the excitement builds for the First Four games on March 18-19, followed by the first round on March 20-21. Among the teams stepping into the spotlight is Liberty University, a program that has steadily carved out a reputation as a mid-major contender in recent years. As they prepare to face their first-round opponent, let’s dive into how Liberty might fare this year and whether they’ll stick around for the second round, drawing on their past tournament performances for insight.
Liberty in the 2025 Tournament: The First Round Challenge
As of now, the full bracket details for 2025 are fresh off the press, and Liberty finds itself slotted as a likely mid-to-lower seed, a position consistent with their profile as a strong Conference USA (C-USA) representative. While their exact opponent isn’t specified here due to the speculative nature of this post (the bracket is still unfolding as of March 19, 2025), let’s assume they’re facing a higher-seeded team from a power conference—say, a 5-seed like Oregon, a matchup speculated in some early chatter on X. This hypothetical pairing offers a fascinating contrast: Liberty’s high-octane, three-point-heavy offense against a defensively stout foe.
Liberty, under coach Ritchie McKay, has built a reputation for its perimeter shooting prowess. The Flames often rank among the nation’s leaders in three-point attempts and efficiency, a style that can either ignite an upset or fizzle out against elite defenses. If they draw a team like Oregon, known for forcing opponents to shoot a meager 31% from beyond the arc, the Flames will need to adapt. Liberty’s Achilles’ heel—poor free-throw shooting (around 65%, one of the lowest in Division I) and a low free-throw rate—could also haunt them if the game tightens up. Still, their ability to spread the floor and exploit mismatches gives them a puncher’s chance in any single-elimination showdown.
Past Tournament Runs: A History of Upsets and Near Misses
Liberty’s NCAA Tournament history provides a mixed bag of inspiration and cautionary tales. Since becoming a regular March Madness participant in the late 2010s, the Flames have shown they can hang with the big dogs—and occasionally pull off a stunner.
- 2019: The Breakthrough Year
Liberty’s most memorable run came in 2019 as a 12-seed out of the Atlantic Sun Conference. Facing 5-seed Mississippi State in the first round, the Flames leaned on their disciplined offense and a barrage of threes to secure a 80-76 upset victory. Guard Caleb Homesley led the charge with 30 points, showcasing Liberty’s ability to ride hot shooting to victory. They advanced to the second round, where they gave 4-seed Virginia Tech a scare, falling 67-58 in a tightly contested battle. This run put Liberty on the map as a mid-major threat capable of advancing past the opening weekend. - 2021: A Competitive Exit
In 2021, Liberty returned as a 13-seed and faced 4-seed Oklahoma State. The Flames kept it close, with Darius McGhee dropping 21 points, but they couldn’t overcome the Cowboys’ athleticism, losing 69-60. This game highlighted both their resilience and their vulnerability against physically imposing teams—a recurring theme that could resurface in 2025. - 2023: A First-Round Stumble
Most recently, in 2023, Liberty entered as a 13-seed and took on 4-seed UConn. Despite a valiant effort and a strong showing from McGhee (26 points), the Flames fell 71-64. UConn’s size and defensive pressure disrupted Liberty’s rhythm, a reminder that their three-point reliance can be neutralized by elite opponents.
These past performances reveal a pattern: Liberty thrives when their shots are falling and struggles when opponents dictate pace and physicality. Their 2019 upset win remains the high-water mark, but their consistent competitiveness suggests they’re rarely an easy out.
Will Liberty Survive the First Round in 2025?
Predicting Liberty’s fate in the first round hinges on matchup specifics, but let’s break it down. If they face a team with strong perimeter defense (like our hypothetical Oregon scenario), the Flames will need an exceptional shooting night—think 40% or better from three—to pull off the upset. Their offense, led by returning stars like Kaden Metheny or a new breakout player, must execute flawlessly, while their defense (often underrated) needs to force turnovers to offset any rebounding disadvantages.
On the flip side, Liberty’s weaknesses could be their undoing. Their poor free-throw shooting and reliance on the three leave little margin for error against a higher seed. If their opponent clogs the perimeter and forces them inside—where Liberty isn’t as comfortable—they could bow out early, much like in 2021 and 2023.
I’m cautiously optimistic: Liberty has the tools to win a first-round game, especially if they catch a higher seed on an off night. Let’s call it a 40% chance of advancing, factoring in their upset potential balanced against the likelihood of facing a superior team. The 2019 run proves they can do it, but consistency has eluded them since.
Second Round Dreams: Can They Stick Around?
If Liberty does pull off the first-round upset, their second-round prospects dim considerably. Historically, their deepest run ended in the Round of 32 (2019), and advancing further would require a Herculean effort against a top-tier team—likely a 1- or 2-seed. The Flames lack the size and depth to sustain a prolonged run against the Dukes, Kansases, or Gonzagas of the bracket. Their Cinderella story would need multiple career nights from key players and a lot of luck with the bracket breaking their way.
Realistically, I don’t see Liberty reaching the Sweet 16 in 2025. Their style is tailor-made for a single-game upset, not a multi-round gauntlet. The 2019 second-round loss to Virginia Tech, a winnable game they couldn’t close, underscores this ceiling.
Final Thoughts
Liberty enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament as a dangerous underdog with a flair for the dramatic. Their first-round matchup will be a litmus test: can they replicate the magic of 2019, or will they falter under pressure as in recent years? Fans should tune in on March 20 or 21 expecting a rollercoaster—either a thrilling upset or a valiant but losing effort. As for the second round, it’s a long shot, but in March Madness, stranger things have happened. One thing’s for sure: Liberty’s shooters will have the green light, and that alone makes them worth watching.
